In this article, I explore how to gain an edge in ante-post betting markets by getting in early to capture genuine value.
I'll focus specifically on football — and in particular, the English Premier League for the upcoming season. I'll examine both extremes of the market and demonstrate how valuable opportunities can often be found at either end.
The Big-Price Sweet Spot: Ante-Post Value in the Outsiders
If you've read my BTTS Gold article, you'll know my "bread and butter" bets revolve around high strike-rate plays. But at heart, I'm a true value hunter — and like any punter, I chase those massive-price winners just as much as the next man. Over the years, I've landed some huge hits:
- A 500/1 golf winner (1000/1 on the exchange) on Si Woo Kim to win The Players Championship.
- Multiple 500/1 darts floor-event winners — a real goldmine my son specialises in (though he's keeping his secrets close for now!).
- Last season in F1, we backed Nico Hülkenberg at 750/1 for a podium, spotting horrific weather conditions that one bookmaker completely overlooked.
But my crowning glory? Backing Leicester City to win the 2015/16 Premier League at 5,000/1. That wasn't luck. It came from deep pre-season research — spotting value the market had entirely missed. That same edge — identifying what bookmakers get wrong before a ball is even kicked — is exactly what I hunt for in ante-post markets today.
How I Spotted This Monster Value
I like tracking emerging trends to find an edge before the market catches on. One I spotted early: the Premier League's TV revenue distribution was quietly levelling the playing field.
- 50% of UK broadcast revenue is split evenly among all 20 clubs.
- International and commercial rights are also divided equally.
- Massive spending no longer guarantees automatic dominance.
The first loud signal came in 2015/16 when I backed Leicester City to win the title at 5000/1. That miracle season wasn't just a fluke — it was early proof of a structural shift. Today the trend is undeniable. The old hierarchy is breaking down. Recent seasons show the so-called "big guns" — Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham and others — frequently struggling with inconsistency and underperformance. Meanwhile, intelligently run mid-tier clubs are thriving:
- Aston Villa — regular European challengers
- Bournemouth — competitive and well-managed
- Brentford — consistent over-performers
- Crystal Palace — solid and increasingly dangerous
To put the financial equalisation in perspective: even the lowest-earning Premier League club now receives more in TV money alone than historic giants like Ajax generate in total annual turnover.
Value Hiding at the Other End of the Market
The "outright winner" market no longer offers the kind of value it once did — bookmakers have adjusted their odds so heavily that big returns are extremely unlikely on any team. That said, I'm still actively value hunting. And I still believe huge value can be found in the shorter-price plays.
Here are three lower-odds trades I made this season, along with my exact thought process behind each one — formed well before the season began.
Manchester United to Finish Top 4 @ 5/1 (6.0)
I targeted this play the moment they lost the Europa League final on May 21 — 86 days before the Premier League even kicked a ball.
While supporters drowned their sorrows over the defeat and the prospect of no European football, I spotted the angle I always hunt for: teams with no European commitments. In an era where more clubs than ever are involved in European competition, it had been a full decade since Manchester United last faced this scenario — and before that, you have to go all the way back to 1981/82.
With all other realistic top-four contenders bogged down by heavy European schedules, I then looked at United's recruitment: Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo, and the acquisition of Benjamin Sesko — one of the most promising young forwards in world football. At 5/1 (decimal 6.0), that implied just a 16.7% probability, which I strongly disagreed with. The trade is currently trading around 1.5 — already a winner in my book.
Chelsea LAY Bet to NOT Finish Top 4 @ 1.65
1.65 implied a 61% probability of Chelsea securing top 4 — and that was miles off the mark. With City, Arsenal, and Liverpool seemingly locking up the top three, that left just one spot. Yet I counted roughly seven teams genuinely capable of pushing for it: Aston Villa, Manchester United, Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and even Spurs at the time.
Couple that with how Chelsea is currently run — a Moneyball-style experiment treating young players as commodities with no clear long-term structure — and the post-Club World Cup euphoria inflating their odds further, and the value on the lay side was obvious. While others celebrated, we saw red flags.
Manchester United to Finish Higher than Chelsea @ 3/1
This was a natural combination of the two previous trades. I viewed this head-to-head finish as essentially a coin flip — true 50/50 in my eyes. So when the bookies offered 3/1 (4.0) on United to end the season above Chelsea, it was too good to pass up.
Right now, only 3 points separate the two sides (United on 51 points in 3rd, Chelsea on 48 in 5th after 29 games, as of mid-March 2026). My original assessment has played out perfectly. Even if it ultimately loses, the value has always been firmly on our side.
Now the Real Work Starts Again
The 2026/27 Premier League is just 163 days away — and my brain is already locked in.
One early thought: Tottenham's ongoing demise this season and the now-realistic chance they could get relegated. I immediately see two roads:
- Road One — the market overestimates them next season (Championship title favourites at odds-on). My radar would be firmly on laying them and taking the field all day.
- Road Two — the market underestimates them. With a fully fit squad, good youth talent, possibly a new manager, and no European football, there could be value in top 10 or top 6 markets.
This is just to highlight how early I'm thinking — and the way I think: often ignoring the crowd, and hunting good old-fashioned, working-class VALUE.
2026/27 Premier League Ante-Post Portfolio — Early Bird Offer
By the time the first ball is kicked in the 2026/27 Premier League, I expect to have a solid portfolio of 25–50 ante-post picks ready, targeting the usual high-value markets: Outright Winner, Top 4, Top 6, Top 10, Relegation, Top Goalscorer, and Top Assists.
All these ante-post selections — including full research, reasoning, and a ready-made portfolio — will be exclusive to Silver Membership, still available at our Early Bird launch price of £99 per year. Once the cap is reached, pricing increases permanently.